Supporting research · ContextChart
The work behind
the explanation.
Questions from the trading screen, measured against data. These edited summaries preserve the finding, its limits, and the thinking that changed.
Seven historical studies and one illustrative modelling framework. They describe research; they do not establish a profitable trading system.
How to read the evidence
- Arithmetic: a relationship that follows from its definition and assumptions.
- Illustrative model: an outcome generated from declared inputs, which can remain unmeasured.
- Historical finding: an observation within a named sample, price convention and method.
- Open hypothesis: a proposed explanation or decision that still needs a relevant test.
A result can improve a measurement without improving trading returns. Corrected and rejected ideas belong in the research record too.
- Illustrative modelPublished · From a trading goal to the conditions it would requireThe assumptions behind income, compounding, losing-streak, and drawdown illustrations in the career explorer.
- Historical studyStudy dated · A movement ruler with a clockTesting whether time of day and recent activity make near-term range more comparable than daily ATR alone.
- Historical studyStudy dated · Cost, selection, and what an accuracy number leaves outSeven linked investigations into trade geometry, market descriptions, overlapping bets, and evidence of useful selection.
- Historical studyStudy dated · Why the same number of points changes meaningA historical comparison of nominal ATR, percentage range, and the persistence of changing movement scales.
- Historical studyStudy dated · Reading the two sides of a currency pairA basket-relative representation of currency movement, tested separately from claims about future direction.
- Historical studyStudy dated · Separating movement, churn, and trading costWhat an hourly FX noise comparison can tell us about paths, spread, and the limits of instrument rankings.
- Historical studyStudy dated · A market call and a winning trade are different outcomesHow a directional judgment became a stopped-trade result under a specified historical simulation.
- Historical studyStudy dated · What targets, stops, and runners changedAn audited study of price touches, first-hit trade outcomes, and runner exits across 35 instruments.
